Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy

Gabriela Contreras M. and Pablo García S.
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Pablo Garcia Silva

Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2002, vol. 5, issue 2, 37-55

Abstract: Trend GDP and the output gap are key inputs for policy evaluation and forecasting in standard models of monetary policy. However, measuring these variables is no easy task. This paper proposes two different approaches. First, a data-based approach, that starts with the primal and dual estimates of total factorproductivity (TFP) growth, and then uses a variety of procedures to filter the inputs. Second, a model-consistent framework that simultaneously estimates the macroeconomic dynamics and the underlying trends of the economy. Finally, a compared analysis is made of the difficulties of each methodology, using it to construct output gap and potential growth measures for Chile.

Date: 2002
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Related works:
Chapter: Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy (2002)
Working Paper: Estimating Gaps and Trends for the Chilean Economy (2002)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:5:y:2002:i:2:p:37-55

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