Are there any robust determinants of growth in Europe? A Bayesian Model Averaging approach

Sara D'Andrea

International Economics, 2022, issue 171, 143-173

Abstract: Quantitative growth economists often have to deal with model uncertainty (Barro et al. (2003)) and the issue of open-endedness of theories (Brock and Durlauf (2001)). Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is the best statistical tool to evaluate the variables to include in a growth regression. This work aims to investigate the robustness of the determinants of growth in Europe from 2002 to 2019. Our dataset is composed of 70 explanatory variables for 19 European countries. We compare different BMA estimates by combining 2 model priors with 5 coefficient priors and we find that no variable is robust to all our specifications. Our results support neoclassical growth theories, as the initial level of GDP per capita and savings are robust determinants of growth. Other robust determinants include the share of manufacturing in GDP, demography, public accounts, wage and labor contract regulation, and fixed capital accumulation.

Keywords: Bayesian model averaging; Growth econometrics; Economic growth; Bayesian methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C38 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2110701722000518 (text/html)

Related works:
Journal Article: Are there any robust determinants of growth in Europe? A Bayesian Model Averaging approach (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cii:cepiie:2022-q3-171-9

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in International Economics from CEPII research center Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().