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Is Trade the Victim of Globalisation?

Agnès Benassy-Quere (), Yvan Decreux, Lionel Fontagné () and David Khoudour

La Lettre du CEPII, 2009, issue 291

Abstract: The brutal drop in global trade during the last quarter of 2008 and the first months of 2009 has been the subject of much discussion. Some have seen this fall-off, which was considerably steeper than the accompanying decline in production, as a reversal of previous trends. The international fragmentation of supply chains is believed to have sped up the growth of trade during recent years and subsequently led to the current downturn. The globalisation process is thus being held responsible for the collapse of trade. We will show, based on a simulation carried out using the MIRAGE model, that the intensity of trade of intermediate goods on a global scale is not a factor behind the overreaction of trade to the shock suffered by business. This overreaction can instead be explained by short-term factors unique to the crisis that began in the financial sector.

Keywords: TRADE; GLOBALIZATION; MIRAGE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 F20 C68 F17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-09
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