 Using Market Prices to Predict Election Results: The 1993 UBC Election Stock MarketRobert Forsythe (), Murray Frank (), V. Krishnamurthy and Thomas Ross Canadian Journal of Economics, 1995, vol. 28, issue 4a, 770-93 Abstract: Economists believe that markets are exceptionally efficient aggregators of information. This research tests this theory by asking whether markets can successfully predict uncertain outcomes. Specifically, the UBC Election Stock Market (UBC-ESM) was created to see if market prices could be accurate predictors of the outcome of the 1993 Canadian federal election. This paper presents the results of this experiment in which over 250 traders from across Canada and the United States participated, investing over $30,000. The structure and workings of the market are explained in some detail and the performance of the market is reviewed. The market predicted the popular vote shares of the major parties very well, but did less well at predicting the split of seats between the Liberal and Conservative parties. Coauthors are Murray Frank, Vasu Krishnamurthy, and Thomas W. Ross. Date: 1995 There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cje:issued:v:28:y:1995:i:4a:p:770-93 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Canadian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Zhiqi Chen More articles in Canadian Journal of Economics from Canadian Economics Association Canadian Economics Association Prof. Werrner Antweiler, Treasurer UBC Sauder School of Business 2053 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2. Contact information at EDIRC. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.