How well do individuals predict their future life satisfaction? Evidence from panel data following a nationwide exogenous shock
Paul Frijters (),
John P. Haisken-DeNew and
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: John P. de New
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2009, vol. 42, issue 4, 1326-1346
Using German panel data, we investigate how well individuals predict their own future life satisfaction. The context is the decade following the 1990 reunification of Germany, which provided a large shock to the future prospects of the inhabitants of the former East Germany. We find that the majority of East Germans significantly overestimated the satisfaction gains from reunification in the years immediately after transition, but by 1994 had converged on correct aggregate expectations. Some evidence of micro-heterogeneity in the prediction errors is found by age and education. For West Germans, we find some initial over-optimism, although less than for East Germans.
JEL-codes: C23 C25 I31 Z1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
access restricted to subscribers
Journal Article: How well do individuals predict their future life satisfaction? Evidence from panel data following a nationwide exogenous shock (2009)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:4:p:1326-1346
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.economic ... ionen/membership.php
Access Statistics for this article
Canadian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Katherine Cuff
More articles in Canadian Journal of Economics from Canadian Economics Association Canadian Economics Association Prof. Werrner Antweiler, Treasurer UBC Sauder School of Business 2053 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Prof. Werner Antweiler ().