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The dependence structure between the Canadian stock market and the USD/CAD exchange rate: a copula approach

Leo Michelis and Cathy Ning

Canadian Journal of Economics, 2010, vol. 43, issue 3, 1016-1039

Abstract: This paper investigates the dependence structure between the real Canadian stock returns and the real USD/CAD exchange rate returns, using the Symmetrized Joe-Clayton (SJC) copula function. We estimate the SJC copula with monthly data over the period 1995:1 to 2006:12. Our results show significant asymmetric static and dynamic tail dependence between the real stock returns and the real exchange rate returns, such that the two returns are more dependent in the left than in the right tail of their joint distribution. We explain this asymmetric dependence in terms of an asymmetric interest rate policy by Canadian monetary authorities in response to changes in the real exchange rate during sub-periods of falling and rising commodity prices.

JEL-codes: C32 C51 F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (33)

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