Predicting Canadian recessions using dynamic probit modelling approaches

Lili Hao and Eric Ng

Canadian Journal of Economics, 2011, vol. 44, issue 4, 1297-1330

Abstract: This paper examines the ability of various financial and macroeconomic variables to forecast Canadian recessions. It evaluates four model specifications, including the advanced dynamic, autoregressive, dynamic autoregressive probit models as well as the conventional static probit model. The empirical results highlight several significant recession predictors, notably the government bond yield spread, growth rates of the housing starts, the real money supply and the composite index of leading indicators. Both the in-sample and out-of-sample results suggest that the forecasting performance of the four probit models is mixed. The dynamic and dynamic autoregressive probit models are better in predicting the duration of recessions while the static and autoregressive probit models are better in forecasting the peaks of business cycles. Hence, the advanced dynamic models and the conventional static probit model can complement one another to provide more accurate forecasts for the duration and turning points of business cycles.

JEL-codes: E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2011.01675.x (text/html)
access restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cje:issued:v:44:y:2011:i:4:p:1297-1330

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.economic ... ionen/membership.php

Access Statistics for this article

Canadian Journal of Economics is currently edited by Zhiqi Chen

More articles in Canadian Journal of Economics from Canadian Economics Association Canadian Economics Association Prof. Werrner Antweiler, Treasurer UBC Sauder School of Business 2053 Main Mall Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Prof. Werner Antweiler ().