Seasonal adjustment, demography, and GDP growth

Geoffrey Dunbar

Canadian Journal of Economics, 2013, vol. 46, issue 3, 811-835

Abstract: Seasonal adjustment removes the predictable seasonal variation in GDP. If there is seasonal variation in factor inputs, then seasonal adjustment factors may be correlated with those inputs. This correlation can obscure statistically the importance of those inputs for GDP. This effect is apparent for the demographic composition of the labour force for Canada. Seasonal adjustment also changes the timeseries properties of GDP. Accounting for the seasonal pattern and trend change in demography suggests that the period of reduced volatility in GDP growth for Canada, the Great Moderation, can be traced to the changing demographic structure of the labour force.

JEL-codes: C82 E01 J11 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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