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THE ANTICIPATION OF THE NUMBER OF TOURISTS ARRIVED IN MAMAIA USING THE TYPE OF MODELS ARIMA

Kamer Ainur M. Aivaz, Ion Danut I. Juganaru and Mariana C. Juganaru
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Kamer Ainur M. Aivaz: Ovidius University of Constanta
Ion Danut I. Juganaru: Ovidius University of Constanta
Mariana C. Juganaru: Ovidius University of Constanta

Network Intelligence Studies, 2016, issue 7, 93-108

Abstract: The Mamaia station is, at the moment, the biggest and the most looked for touristic station from the Romanian seaside of the Black Sea. From the analysis of the evolution of the main indicators of touristic circulation from the last 10 years (2006-2015), we can notice a significant increase, but we are also interested in knowing the tendency of their modification in the near future. For this reason, in the present study, we wanted to test the contribution of the models ARIMA to the elaboration of an anticipation regarding the indicators: arrivals of tourists, totally and structurally: Romanians and foreigners, for Mamaia station. We consider that the results obtained in this study may contribute to the defining of the strategy of development of the station and ensuring the necessary conditions for hosting a significant greater number of tourists, in the following years.

Keywords: Tourists arrivals; Auto regressive models; Prevision (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C21 C53 M21 J63 Z33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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