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SIGNIFICANT MOMENTS IN THE HISTORY AND EVOLUTION OF THE TOURISTIC CITY OF CONSTANTA AND ANTICIPATION OF THE NUMBER OF ARRIVED TOURISTS USING THE ARIMA MODELS

Mariana C. Juganaru, Kamer Ainur M. Aivaz and Ion Danut I. Juganaru
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Mariana C. Juganaru: Ovidius University of Constanta
Kamer Ainur M. Aivaz: Ovidius University of Constanta
Ion Danut I. Juganaru: Ovidius University of Constanta

Network Intelligence Studies, 2016, issue 8, 179-196

Abstract: For the Romanian economy, Constanța is appreciated mainly because it is the biggest port town in the country, and for many generations it has been the city where they spend many of their summer holidays. But how many of us know that the bathroom resort – Constanța has an officially attested existence of 140 years? In this study, the aim is, on one side, to present the significant moments in the history and evolution of this historic city, in order to bring to the foreground and sustain the position that the city has at the present moment in the system of touristic spots on the Romanian seaside, and on the other side, our concern is to know the future evolution of the touristic activity, to make some previsions using the ARIMA models, for one of the most used indicators in the analysis of touristic circulation, respectively: the number of arrivals of tourists, structurally and totally: Romanian and foreigners. We think that the obtained results, applying these models, may be considered a solid base for different debates regarding the choice of an efficient strategy, that should allow reaching an equilibrium between the effort of attracting a number of tourists as big as possible (Romanian and foreigners), of growing their degree of satisfaction towards the touristic offer and the concern of not generating disruptions in the economic, social and cultural life of the city.

Keywords: Tourists’ arrivals; Autoregressive models; Previsions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 C21 C53 M21 J63 Z33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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