Agent-Based Simulation of Long-Distance Travel: Strategies to Reduce CO2 Emissions from Passenger Aviation

Alona Pukhova, Ana Tsui Moreno, Carlos Llorca, Wei-Chieh Huang and Rolf Moeckel
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Alona Pukhova: Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Germany
Ana Tsui Moreno: Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Germany
Carlos Llorca: Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Germany
Wei-Chieh Huang: Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Germany
Rolf Moeckel: Department of Civil, Geo and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Munich, Germany

Urban Planning, 2021, vol. 6, issue 2, 271-284

Abstract: Every sector needs to minimize GHG emissions to limit climate change. Emissions from transport, however, have remained mostly unchanged over the past thirty years. In particular, air travel for short-haul flights is a significant contributor to transport emissions. This article identifies factors that influence the demand for domestic air travel. An agent-based model was implemented for domestic travel in Germany to test policies that could be implemented to reduce air travel and CO 2 emissions. The agent-based long-distance travel demand model is composed of trip generation, destination choice, mode choice and CO 2 emission modules. The travel demand model was estimated and calibrated with the German Household Travel Survey, including socio-demographic characteristics and area type. Long-distance trips were differentiated by trip type (daytrip, overnight trip), trip purpose (business, leisure, private) and mode (auto, air, long-distance rail and long-distance bus). Emission factors by mode were used to calculate CO 2 emissions. Potential strategies and policies to reduce air travel demand and its CO 2 emissions are tested using this model. An increase in airfares reduced the number of air trips and reduced transport emissions. Even stronger effects were found with a policy that restricts air travel to trips that are longer than a certain threshold distance. While such policies might be difficult to implement politically, restricting air travel has the potential to reduce total CO 2 emissions from transport by 7.5%.

Keywords: aviation emissions; long distance travel; mode choice modelling; transport emissions; transport modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cog:urbpla:v6:y:2021:i:2:p:271-284

DOI: 10.17645/up.v6i2.4021

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