Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo

Héctor Mauricio Nunez Amortegui ()

Revista de Economía del Rosario, 2005, No 3709

Abstract: Based on the understanding of inflation forecasts as an intermediate policy objective, this paper evaluates forecasts of different inflation models in Colombia during the inflation targeting (IT) period. The evaluation is done using three different statistical methodologies. The results suggest that the best models, in terms of precision, are the Food´s Relative Price and the traditional P* models. Additionally, a multiplier analysis is performed over these models, in which the sensitivity of short and medium term forecasts to shocks in the exogenous variables is assessed

Keywords: inflación objetivo; pronósticos de inflación; pruebas para evaluación de pronósticos; análisis de multiplicadores (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000151:003709

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