Ciclo inmobiliario y demográfico. Un análisis de cointegración para el caso espanol

Montserrat Díaz Fernández (), Mar Llorente Marron () and Paz Méndez Rodríguez ()

Revista Lebret, 2015, vol. 7, 155-174

Abstract: Resumen Se analiza la interrelación entre el ciclo inmobiliario y el comportamiento demográfico en Espana durante 1975 a 2013. Se evalúa empíricamente la existencia de un modelo de comportamiento entre ambos ciclos, siguiendo la metodología tradicional de los estudios de series de tiempo. Se especifica un modelo de corrección de error. Se evalúa el dominio del efecto de largo plazo sobre el corto plazo. El modelo obtenido detecta un equilibrio a largo plazo entre ambas series, ecuación de cointegración que visualiza el dominio de la serie inmobiliaria. Abstract The relationship between the real estate cycle and demographic behavior in Spain during the period 1975-2013 is analyzed. The existence of a pattern of behavior between the two cycles following the traditional methodology of time series studies are empirically evaluated. A model error correction is specified. The domain of the long-term effect on the short term is evaluated. The model detects a long-term equilibrium between the two series, a cointegrating equation that displays the domain of the real number estate series.

Keywords: Vivienda; alojamiento; natalidad; análisis de cointegración (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 J13 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000385:016121

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