Factors determining the price of the Decarbonization Credit (CBIO) and implications for Brazil's RenovaBio Policy

Marianna Henriques Ferreira Lima and Herlander Costa Alegre da Gama Afonso
Additional contact information
Marianna Henriques Ferreira Lima: Educación Tecnológica Celso Suckow da Fonseca
Herlander Costa Alegre da Gama Afonso: Centro Federal de Educación Tecnológica Celso Suckow da Fonseca

Revista Tendencias, 2026, vol. 27, issue 02, 174-200

Abstract: Introduction: Global warming poses challenges for economic decarbonization, highlighting the pricing of environmental assets such as the Decarbonization Certificate (CBIO). Objective: To analyze the influence of macroeconomic and market variables oil (WTI), natural gas, dollar exchange rate (USD/BRL), VIX index, and traded volume on CBIO price formation under the RenovaBio policy. Methodology: A multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied to daily time series data spanning four years. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root and Engle-Granger cointegration tests were used to validate estimation in levels, along with the Breusch-Godfrey test for autocorrelation and re-estimation using Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) standard errors. Results: Oil, the dollar, and the VIX are statistically significant predictors of the CBIO price, even after correcting standard errors. Discussion: Sensitivity to external volatility and energy commodities links Brazilian decarbonization to global dynamics, limiting national autonomy in the face of external shocks. Conclusions: CBIO behaves as a financial asset sensitive to market variables, but requires regulatory mechanisms to mitigate exchange rate volatility in order to incentivize stable investments in biofuels.

Keywords: climate change; raw material; economic research; energy policy; environmental economics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 Q20 Q42 Q54 Q57 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://revistas.udenar.edu.co/index.php/rtend/article/view/10409
https://revistas.udenar.edu.co/index.php/rtend/article/view/10409/11314

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:col:000520:023327

DOI: 10.22267/rtend.26272.301

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Revista Tendencias from Universidad de Narino Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Universidad de Narino ().