Ties between The Treatise on Probability and the General Theory: a critical examination

Nicolas Piluso ()

Cahiers d’économie politique / Papers in Political Economy, 2015, issue 68, 33-60

Abstract: From the 80s, some economists believe that the Keynesian Treatise of Probability is a key element of the “fundamentalist” approach based on uncertainty. According to them, there is a complementary relationship between the Treatise and the General Theory. However, such a radical project based on the Treatise of Probability has never succeeded, although it is found in the developments of Chapter 12 of the General Theory. We are trying to understand firstly what motivated the birth of such a point of view, and secondly why this project has not been developed as some French economists had announced. We show that the object of analysis of the Treatise covers a different type of uncertainty that the General Theory.

Keywords: Trust; convention; uncertainty; forecasts; probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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