Why are Canadian and US Unemployment Rates So Highly Correlated?

Kevin Lang and Jay Zagorsky

Canadian Public Policy, 1998, vol. 24, issue s1, 56-71

Abstract: We examine twin mysteries - the high correlation between Canadian and US unemployment rates and the emergence of a gap between these rates around 1982. We argue that the apparent close relationship between the unemployment rates and the sudden emergence of a gap are statistically spurious, because both rates are highly persistent. When we difference the data, the unemployment rates remain highly correlated but at a plausible level. Moreover, the permanent increase in the gap is not strikingly large compared with other years. This means that there is little reason to limit explanations for the current gap to events in 1982.

Date: 1998
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