Canadian Union Density 1980 to 1998 and Prospects for the Future: An Empirical Investigation

Susan Johnson

Canadian Public Policy, 2002, vol. 28, issue 3, 333-349

Abstract: An examination of the factors that determine Canadian union density reveals long-run decline in union membership growth. A stock-flow accounting analysis decomposes union membership growth into net growth due to "recognition" and net growth due to "economic and other" factors. These components are compared and then each is more closely examined. Net growth due to recognition is dissected to reveal the importance of organizing activity and certification success. Regression and shift-share analysis are used to test for the impact of cyclical and structural change on net growth due to economic and other factors. Projections of union density are used to consider the implications of changes in the last two decades for the future of Canadian union density.

Date: 2002
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