The Battle Over Oil Sands Access to Tidewater: A Political Risk Analysis of Pipeline Alternatives

George Hoberg

Canadian Public Policy, 2013, vol. 39, issue 3, 371-392

Abstract: Market access for Canada's oil sands has been increasingly contested as proposals for new pipelines have become so controversial. This article develops a framework for political risk analysis and applies it to five pipeline proposals. The political risk to major infrastructure projects is a function of the number of institutional veto points; whether opposition groups have access to veto points; whether the project can take advantage of existing infrastructure; the salience of concentrated environmental risks; and the jurisdictional separation of risks and benefits. Each of the projects faces formidable political risks, but the risks vary in type and magnitude by project.

Date: 2013
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