Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography

Paweł Zając and Piotr Gurgul ()

Statistics in Transition new series, 2012, vol. 13, issue 2, 387-404

Abstract: This paper demonstrates that the forecast of migration matrices can be conducted by means of updating procedures, well-known in the I-O theory. The authors use some of the most popular I-O updating procedures (RAS and some non-biproportional approaches) and calculate measures of the ex-post error of predictions. While taking into account the measures of distance between two matrices, a ranking of forecasting methods of migration matrices (forecast horizon one) is established. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of particular forecasting methods with respect to one-step ex-post forecasts of migration matrices are discussed.

Keywords: Births and deaths of enterprises; migration in branches of industry; prediction; updating methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 L25 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:csb:stintr:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:387-404

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