EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The Geography of Climate Migration

Michał Burzyński (), Frédéric Docquier () and Hendrik Scheewel
Additional contact information
Hendrik Scheewel: Université de Liège and IRES, UCLouvain

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2021, vol. 87, issue 3, 345-381

Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the long-term effects of climate change on the mobility of working-age people. We use a world economy model that covers almost all the countries around the world, and distinguishes between rural and urban regions as well as between flooded and unflooded areas. The model is calibrated to match international and internal mobility data by education level for the last 30 years, and is then simulated under climate change variants. We endogenize the size, dyadic, and skill structure of climate migration. When considering moderate climate scenarios, we predict mobility responses in the range of 70–108 million workers over the course of the twenty-first century. Most of these movements are local or inter-regional. South–South international migration responses are smaller, while the South–North migration response is of the “brain drain” type and induces a permanent increase in the number of foreigners in OECD countries in the range of 6–9% only. Changes in the sea level mainly translate into forced local movements. By contrast, inter-regional and international movements are sensitive to temperature-related changes in productivity. Lastly, we show that relaxing international migration restrictions may exacerbate the poverty effect of climate change at origin if policymakers are unable to select/screen individuals in extreme poverty.

Keywords: Brain drain; Climate change; Migration; Ubranization (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 F22 J24 J61 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-09-01
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2021.6 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The geography of climate migration (2021) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:87:y:2021:i:3:p:345-381

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics from Cambridge University Press Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sebastien SCHILLINGS ().

 
Page updated 2022-09-13
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:87:y:2021:i:3:p:345-381