Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility?

Kei Sakata and Colin McKenzie
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Kei Sakata: Australian Gambling Research Center, Australian Insitute of Family Studies

JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, 2022, vol. 88, issue 3, 283-211

Abstract: This paper argues that the expectation of having to provide care for aging parents in the future may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple's current family planning. The first-stage model of a couple's family planning decision is a logit model which examines the decision of whether or not to have any children, and then in the second stage a Poisson model is applied to explain the number of children a couple has conditional on the couple having at least one child. The empirical evidence presented suggests that there are strong generational effects, and that for the post-war cohort, an increase in the probability of having to look after a parent increases the probability of a couple being childless.

Keywords: Age care; Fertility; Hurdle model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-08-10
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https://doi.org/10.1017/dem.2020.35 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: Does the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affect current fertility? (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:88:y:2022:i:3:p:283-211

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