Predictability and self-similarity in demand maturity of tourist destinations: The case of Tenerife

Francisco Flores-Muñoz, Josué Gutiérrez-Barroso and Alberto Javier Báez-García
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Francisco Flores-Muñoz: Department of Economics, University of La Laguna
Josué Gutiérrez-Barroso: Department of Sociology, University of La Laguna
Alberto Javier Báez-García: Department of Political Science, University of La Laguna

Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, vol. 42, issue 118, 59-69

Abstract: This work aims to explore the behavior of a mature island tourist destination, Tenerife, according to the Autoregressive Fractional Differencing Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model. This behavior will be compared to several other destinations, in an increasing geographical scale. Relevant lessons will arise for policy making at the short and long run. Predictability seems to be available but only for a limited horizon. Self similarity across geographic level seems to arise from the results. These findings complement previous conceptualizations like classic TALC (tourism area life cycle) based on long term predictability.

Keywords: Demand modeling; Mature tourist destinations; ARFIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D8 E3 R5 Z1 Z3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cud:journl:v:42:y:2019:i:118:p:59-69

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