Re-estimating the Growth Rate of the Chinese Economy from A Provincial Perspective by Correcting Two Biases

Zhan Li ()
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Zhan Li: School of Economics and Management, Anhui Normal University

Annals of Economics and Finance, 2024, vol. 25, issue 1, 327-344

Abstract: This paper accepts the way adopted by the official statistics for constructing price indices at sectoral level across provinces and reconstructs provincial output data by reconciling the GDP totals reported in provincial statistical yearbooks and the industry structure in provincial input-output tables. The average annual growth rate of real GDP in the Chinese economy over 1992-2018 is 7.7% based on the preferable double and Tornqvist aggregation approach, which is 1.8 percentage points below the official claimed 9.5%. The alternative estimates show significant volatility of the growth, hence providing much more useful information than the remarkably smoothed official series.

Keywords: The Chinese Economy; Provincial Perspective; Double Deflation; Tornqvist Aggregation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C43 C67 C82 O41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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