Mortality in Ireland at Advanced Ages, 1950-2006: Part 2: Graduated Rates

S. F. Whelan

Annals of Actuarial Science, 2009, vol. 4, issue 1, 67-104

Abstract: We graduate the Irish mortality experience from 1950 to 2003 by mathematical formulae from ages 75 years and upwards. The shape of the mortality curve at advanced ages is shown to be different to that recorded in the official tables, with the curve best fitted with Kannisto's version of Perks's Law. Mortality rates show only a modest trend of improvement in the early decades, below improvements in other developed countries. We evaluate the various approaches suggested to date to extend the method of extinct generations so mortality rates for non-extinct generations can be estimated. It is shown that the key advantage of this method is not in correcting for age misstatements but in achieving a close correspondence between death counts and the exposed to risk. This insight allows a rather straightforward approach to estimating the mortality of non-extinct generations. Applying the approach, we show that there has been an acceleration in the rate of improvement in more recent decades, but secular improvements in Irish mortality at advanced ages still lag behind those of England and Wales.

Date: 2009
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