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Speed of Finalization of Claims and Claims Runoff Analysis

G. C. Taylor

ASTIN Bulletin, 1981, vol. 12, issue 2, 81-100

Abstract: To some extent, this paper provides theoretical back-up for Taylor's (1980b) see-saw method of analysis of outstanding claims. Section 3 deals with the payments per claim finalized (PPCF) method. This assumes PPCF to be a function of development year only. Section 4 carries out a theoretical investigation of the validity of this assumption. It is found that the assumption is not justified in general; that PPCF can (and usually will) be sensitive to changes in speed of finalization of claims; and that this sensitivity will depend on the convexity properties of PPCF as a function of development year. The analysis is made on the basis of the so-called hypothesis of invariant order. Section 5 develops the see-saw method from this theoretical basis, although Section 7 is at pains to point to situations in which that method remains applicable despite violation of the hypothesis of invariant order. Section 6 provides a numerical example.

Date: 1981
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