A Semi-Parametric Predictor of the IBNR Reserve

Louis G. Doray

ASTIN Bulletin, 1997, vol. 27, issue 1, 113-116

Abstract: We develop a semi-parametric predictor of the IBNR reserve in a macro-model when the claim amount for a certain accident and development year can be expressed in a loglinear form composed of a deterministic part and a random error. We need to make assumptions only on the first two moments of the error, without any specified parametric assumption on its distribution. We give its properties, present its advantages and compare the estimates obtained with various predictors of the IBNR reserve, parametric and non-parametric, using a data set.

Date: 1997
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