Mortality Projection Based on the Wang Transform

Piet De Jong and Claymore Marshall

ASTIN Bulletin, 2007, vol. 37, issue 1, 149-161

Abstract: A new method for analysing and projecting mortality is proposed and examined. The method takes observed time series of survival probabilities, finds the corresponding z-scores in the standard normal distribution and forecasts the z-scores. The z-scores appear to follow a common simple linear progression in time and hence forecasting is straightforward. Analysis on the z-score scale offers useful insights into the way mortality evolves over time. The method and extensions are applied to Australian female mortality data to derive projections to the year 2100 in both survival probabilities and expectations of life.

Date: 2007
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