Quasi Risk-Neutral Pricing in Insurance

Harry Niederau and Peter Zweifel

ASTIN Bulletin, 2009, vol. 39, issue 1, 317-337

Abstract: This contribution shows that for certain classes of insurance risks, pricing can be based on expected values under a probability measure ℙ* amounting to quasi risk-neutral pricing. This probability measure is unique and optimal in the sense of minimizing the relative entropy with respect to the actuarial probability measure ℙ, which is a common approach in the case of incomplete markets. After expounding the key elements of this theory, an application to a set of industrial property risks is developed, assuming that the severity of losses can be modeled by “Swiss Re Exposure Curves”, as discussed by Bernegger (1997). These curves belong to a parametric family of distribution functions commonly used by pricing actuaries. The quasi risk-neutral pricing approach not only yields risk exposure specific premiums but also Risk Adjusted Capital (RAC) values on the very same level of granularity. By way of contrast, the conventional determination of RAC is typically considered on a portfolio level only.

Date: 2009
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