Modelling Adult Mortality in Small Populations: The Saint Model

Søren Fiig Jarner and Esben Masotti Kryger

ASTIN Bulletin, 2011, vol. 41, issue 2, 377-418

Abstract: The mortality evolution of small populations often exhibits substantial variability and irregular improvement patterns making it hard to identify underlying trends and produce plausible projections. We propose a methodology for robust forecasting based on the existence of a larger reference population sharing the same long-term trend as the population of interest. The reference population is used to estimate the parameters in a frailty model for the underlying intensity surface. A multivariate time series model describing the deviations of the small population mortality from the underlying mortality is then fitted and forecasted. Coherent long-term forecasts are ensured by the underlying frailty model while the size and variability of short- to medium-term deviations are quantified by the time series model. The frailty model is particularly well suited to describe the changing improvement patterns in old age mortality. We apply the method to Danish mortality data with a pooled international data set as reference population.

Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:astinb:v:41:y:2011:i:02:p:377-418_00

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in ASTIN Bulletin from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().