BAYESIAN ASYMMETRIC LOGIT MODEL FOR DETECTING RISK FACTORS IN MOTOR RATEMAKING

J.M. Pérez-Sánchez, M.A. Negrín-Hernández, C. García-García and E. Gómez-Déniz

ASTIN Bulletin, 2014, vol. 44, issue 2, 445-457

Abstract: Modelling automobile insurance claims is a crucial component in the ratemaking procedure. This paper focuses on the probability that a policyholder reports a claim, where the classical logit link does not provide a right model. This is so because databases related with automobile claims are often unbalanced, containing more non-claims than the presence of claims. In this work an asymmetric logit model, which takes into account the large number of non-claims in the portfolio, is considered. Both, logit and asymmetric logit models from a Bayesian point of view, are used to a sample that was collected from a major automobile insurance company in Spain in 2009, resulting in a dataset of 2,000 passenger vehicle. We establish the validity of the asymmetric model in front of the conventional logit link. The use of a garage, the age of the vehicle and the duration of the client's relation with the company are all shown to be significant explanatory variables by the logit model. The asymmetric model includes, in addition, the length of time the policyholder has held a driving licence and the type of use made of the vehicle. The asymmetric model provides a better fit to the data examined.

Date: 2014
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:astinb:v:44:y:2014:i:02:p:445-457_00

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in ASTIN Bulletin from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().