MODELLING MORTALITY FOR PENSION SCHEMES

Andrew Hunt and David Blake

ASTIN Bulletin, 2017, vol. 47, issue 2, 601-629

Abstract: For many pension schemes, a shortage of data limits their ability to use sophisticated stochastic mortality models to assess and manage their exposure to longevity risk. In this study, we develop a mortality model designed for such pension schemes, which compares the evolution of mortality rates in a sub-population with that observed in a larger reference population. We apply this approach to data from the CMI Self-Administered Pension Scheme study, using U.K. population data as a reference. We then use the approach to investigate the potential differences in the evolution of mortality rates between these two populations and find that, in many practical situations, basis risk is much less of a problem than is commonly believed.

Date: 2017
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