SPATIAL DEPENDENCE AND AGGREGATION IN WEATHER RISK HEDGING: A LÉVY SUBORDINATED HIERARCHICAL ARCHIMEDEAN COPULAS (LSHAC) APPROACH

Wenjun Zhu, Ken Seng Tan, Lysa Porth and Chou-Wen Wang

ASTIN Bulletin, 2018, vol. 48, issue 2, 779-815

Abstract: Adverse weather-related risk is a main source of crop production loss and a big concern for agricultural insurers and reinsurers. In response, weather risk hedging may be valuable, however, due to basis risk it has been largely unsuccessful to date. This research proposes the Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copula model in modelling the spatial dependence of weather risk to reduce basis risk. The analysis shows that the Lévy subordinated hierarchical Archimedean copula model can improve the hedging performance through more accurate modelling of the dependence structure of weather risks and is more efficient in hedging extreme downside weather risk, compared to the benchmark copula models. Further, the results reveal that more effective hedging may be achieved as the spatial aggregation level increases. This research demonstrates that hedging weather risk is an important risk management method, and the approach outlined in this paper may be useful to insurers and reinsurers in the case of agriculture, as well as for other related risks in the property and casualty sector.

Date: 2018
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