The Prospect of Mortality: England and Wales and the United States of America, 1962–1989

M.J. Murphy

British Actuarial Journal, 1995, vol. 1, issue 2, 331-350

Abstract: Forecasts of mortality are included in official population projections. The methodology and performance of British mortality forecasts is reviewed and compared with those of the United States of America in the quarter century up to 1989. The results are found to have been surprisingly poor when compared, for example, with the more widely-criticised fertility component; similar conclusions hold for other developed countries. Although the methodology has become more sophisticated over the years by using detailed information on cause of death and cohort-based approaches, this has not led to obviously better forecasts, and the time period at which the forecasts are made is more important than the method used. The particular importance of mortality assumptions in determining projected numbers of elderly people discussed.

Date: 1995
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