Mortality experience of long-term care residents of Bupa care homes over the period 2016–2019

Mary Hall and Andrew Barry

British Actuarial Journal, 2025, vol. 30, -

Abstract: As the population ages, the provision of adult long-term care (LTC) is one of the major challenges facing the UK and other developed nations. LTC funding for the elderly is complex, reflecting the range and level of services provided, with the total cost depending on the duration of LTC required. Institutional care settings (e.g., nursing/residential care homes) represent the most expensive form of LTC. Planning and funding for institutional LTC requires an understanding of the factors affecting the mortality (and hence duration and cost of care) of such LTC recipients. Using data provided by Bupa, one of the largest LTC providers in Britain, this paper investigates factors affecting the mortality of residents of institutional LTC facilities over the period 2016-2019. Consistent with existing research, most residents were female and had a higher average age profile compared with male residents. For those residents who died during the investigation period, the average length of stay was approximately 1.6 times longer for females relative to males. For both males and females, new residents experienced higher mortality in the first-year post admission compared to existing residents. Variations in the mortality of the residents were analysed by condition, funding status and care type on admission.

Date: 2025
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