The Wilkie Model for Retail Price Inflation Revisited

W.S. Chan and Sun Ling Wang

British Actuarial Journal, 1998, vol. 4, issue 3, 637-652

Abstract: A first order autoregressive model was proposed in Wilkie (1995) for the retail price inflation series as a part of his stochastic investment model. In this paper we apply time series outlier analysis to the data set and a revised model is derived. It significantly alleviates the problem of leptokurtic and positive skewed residual distribution as found in the original model. Finally, ARCH models for the original series and the outlier-adjusted data are also considered.

Date: 1998
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