A Continuous Performance Investigation of Selected United Kingdom Equities

R.S. Clarkson

British Actuarial Journal, 1999, vol. 5, issue 4, 801-822

Abstract: This paper extends and develops the strategy investment approach first described in a paper to the 1997 Investment Conference of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries. Selected constituents of the FTSE-100 Index are partitioned each month into groups of ten in terms of relative attractiveness as estimated by a utility function involving expected earnings growth over the following twelve months and prospective price-earnings ratio. The relative performances of these monthly cohorts of selections are then calculated at monthly intervals using principles similar to those used in mortality rate investigations. The mean values and the underlying variability of these relative performances suggest that the strategy investment approach provides a very powerful and consistent framework for successful equity share selection. Finally, the outline of a fundamental preferences model for performance relative to an equity market index is put forward as a possible replacement for the Capital Asset Pricing Model as the basic theoretical framework for equity share returns.

Date: 1999
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