Economic Applications to Actuarial Work: Personal Pensions and Future Rates of Return

A.C.M. Cantor and J.A. Sefton

British Actuarial Journal, 2002, vol. 8, issue 1, 91-131

Abstract: This paper considers certain applications of economics to actuarial work, concentrating on three issues of public interest. The background to the first two issues is the Government's encouragement of personal pensions particularly through stakeholder pensions. The paper shows how the use of an economics model enables investigations to be made, firstly on the demand for personal pensions by different income groups and secondly on the likely inequality of benefits between generations due to variations in the rates of return. The conclusion on the first issue is that personal pensions are of little benefit to low-earners, i.e. those the Government most wants to benefit, and recommends a way of rectifying this; the main conclusion on the second issue is that households will take action to mitigate much of the inequality. The third issue, that of estimating future rates of return, is one of key financial importance. The paper reviews relevant economic papers in this area and considers how the actuarial profession may improve communication with the economics discipline and with its members.

Date: 2002
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