Von Kries and the other ‘German logicians’: non-numerical probabilities before Keynes

Guido Fioretti

Economics and Philosophy, 2001, vol. 17, issue 2, 245-273

Abstract: Keynes's A Treatise on Probability (Keynes, 1921) contains some quite unusual concepts, such as non-numerical probabilities and the ‘weights of the arguments’ that support probability judgements. Their controversial interpretation gave rise to a huge literature about ‘what Keynes really did mean’, also because Keynes's later views in macroeconomics ultimately rest on his ideas on uncertainty and expectations formation.

Date: 2001
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