Climate risk and food availability in Guatemala

Renato Vargas, Maynor Cabrera, Martín Cicowiez, Pamela Escobar, Violeta Hernández, Javier Cabrera and Vivian Guzmán

Environment and Development Economics, 2018, vol. 23, issue 5, 558-579

Abstract: In this paper, we use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of drought and a decrease in agricultural productivity caused by climate change in Guatemala. A reduction in agricultural productivity would mean a considerable drop in crop and livestock production, and the resulting higher prices and lower household income would mean a significant reduction in the consumption of agricultural goods and food. The most negative effects of a drought would be concentrated in agriculture, given its intensive use of water. Because agricultural production is essential to ensuring food availability, these results suggest that Guatemala needs a proper water-distribution regulatory framework.

Date: 2018
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