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INFERENCE AFTER MODEL AVERAGING IN LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

Xinyu Zhang and Chu-An Liu ()

Econometric Theory, 2019, vol. 35, issue 4, 816-841

Abstract: This article considers the problem of inference for nested least squares averaging estimators. We study the asymptotic behavior of the Mallows model averaging estimator (MMA; Hansen, 2007) and the jackknife model averaging estimator (JMA; Hansen and Racine, 2012) under the standard asymptotics with fixed parameters setup. We find that both MMA and JMA estimators asymptotically assign zero weight to the under-fitted models, and MMA and JMA weights of just-fitted and over-fitted models are asymptotically random. Building on the asymptotic behavior of model weights, we derive the asymptotic distributions of MMA and JMA estimators and propose a simulation-based confidence interval for the least squares averaging estimator. Monte Carlo simulations show that the coverage probabilities of proposed confidence intervals achieve the nominal level.

Date: 2019
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