What Are the Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Environmental Lead on Personality?

Arthur Fraas, Randall Lutter, Joshua Murphy, Qinrui Xiahou, Jeff Potter and Samuel D. Gosling

Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 2025, vol. 16, issue 1, 13-27

Abstract: In the first analysis purporting to causally link environmental pollution to personality, Schwaba and colleagues leveraged a natural experiment driven by the United States. They used the Clean Air Act to assess the impact of decreased atmospheric lead on the “big five” personality traits. Using data from an online personality test taken by more than 1.2 million U.S. residents, Schwaba et al. reported that people born after lead levels had peaked in their county of birth had more mature, psychologically healthy personalities in adulthood (higher agreeableness and conscientiousness, and lower neuroticism) than cohorts born earlier and exposed to higher levels of atmospheric lead. One concern with their findings is that personality differences among people born in different periods could come from factors unrelated to lead, for example, access to abortion and birth control, or demographic, cultural, or technological changes. Schwaba et al. recognized this possibility but did not fully explore it. When we account for cohort-wide changes by introducing birth year fixed effects into Schwaba et al.’s models, the estimated effects of the lead phaseout on personality largely disappear, becoming indistinguishable from zero while remaining precise. Meanwhile, the estimated birth year fixed effects are jointly significant, suggesting differences in personality traits across cohorts. These results indicate that any effects of the lead phaseout on more mature, psychologically healthy adult personalities are not consistently observable in the data used by Schwaba et al. More broadly, they caution against making causal inferences without controlling for time period effects.

Date: 2025
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