A Determination of the Risk of Ruin

Joseph D. Vinso

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1979, vol. 14, issue 1, 77-100

Abstract: Recently, there has been an increased interest in the role that bankruptcy or ruin plays in the valuation process. Several authors have discussed this subject (Gordon [17], Quirk [27], and Smith [35]) and some have constructed theoretical models attempting to show how the probability or risk of ruin introduces an element of risk into valuation (for example, Bierman [5], Borch [8], Tinsely [37]). The question of corporate survival is, therefore, central to the financial considerations of the firm. None, however, has attempted empirical tests of the role of such a probability in valuation.

Date: 1979
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