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Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression

Wayne E. Ferson, Sergei Sarkissian and Timothy Simin ()

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2008, vol. 43, issue 2, 331-353

Abstract: This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become biased. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.

Date: 2008
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Working Paper: Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression (2006) Downloads
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