Interest Rate Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Abraham Lioui () and Paulo Maio

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2014, vol. 49, issue 2, 483-511

Abstract: We derive a macroeconomic asset pricing model in which the key factor is the opportunity cost of money. The model explains well the cross section of stock returns in addition to the excess market return. The interest rate factor is priced and seems to drive most of the explanatory power of the model. In this model, both value stocks and past long-term losers enjoy higher average (excess) returns because they have higher interest rate risk than growth/past winner stocks. The model significantly outperforms the nested models (capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and consumption CAPM (CCAPM)) and compares favorably with alternative macroeconomic models.

Date: 2014
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