Dividend Predictability Around the World

Jesper Rangvid, Maik Schmeling and Andreas Schrimpf

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2014, vol. 49, issue 5-6, 1255-1277

Abstract: We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the United States does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed.

Date: 2014
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Working Paper: Dividend predictability around the world (2010)
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