When Are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run?

Eric Jondeau, Qunzi Zhang and Xiaoneng Zhu

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2021, vol. 56, issue 4, 1228-1258

Abstract: Pástor and Stambaugh (2012) find that from a forward-looking perspective, stocks are more volatile in the long run than they are in the short run. We demonstrate that when the nonnegative equity premium (NEP) condition is imposed on predictive regressions, stocks are in fact less volatile in the long run, even after taking estimation risk and uncertainties into account. The reason is that the NEP provides an additional parameter identification condition and prior information for future returns. Combined with the mean reversion of stock returns, this condition substantially reduces uncertainty on future returns and leads to lower long-run predictive variance.

Date: 2021
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Working Paper: When Are Stocks Less Volatile in the Long Run? (2018)
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