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Counterparty Risk in Over-the-Counter Markets

Christoph Frei, Agostino Capponi and Celso Brunetti

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2022, vol. 57, issue 3, 1058-1082

Abstract: We study trading and risk management decisions of banks in over-the-counter markets, accounting for 2 types of risk: payoff risk from loans and counterparty risk from trading activities. Our model provides empirically supported predictions on the structure of the interbank credit default swap (CDS) market: i) banks with high default probabilities either buy or sell CDS contracts; ii) because of the counterparty risk friction, payoff risk is only partially shared; and iii) safe banks act as intermediaries and help diversify counterparty risk. Banks manage their default probabilities to become creditworthy counterparties, but they do so in a socially inefficient way.

Date: 2022
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