Comment: The Predictive Content of Some Leading Economic Indicators for Future Stock Prices

Donald G. Simonson

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 1974, vol. 9, issue 2, 259-261

Abstract: Professors Heathcotte and Apilado investigate a mechanical stock market trading rule which attempts to exploit the implications for market short-run price action contained in the leading indicators of business cycles found on the NBER 1966 Short List. The authors note that, in approaching peaks of business cycles, turns in all of the other leading indicators on the List except corporate profits occur before turns in the Standard and Poor's 500 Common Stock Index. Virtually the opposite is true relative to cyclical troughs, i.e., they nearly all lag the Index. The authors generalize, therefore, that turns in composite or diffusion indices constructed of the leading indicators might provide profitable signals to take appropriate positions (long or short) in the Standard and Poor's 500 stocks.

Date: 1974
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:9:y:1974:i:02:p:259-261_01

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().