A universal method for evaluating the quality of aggregators

Ying Han and David Budescu

Judgment and Decision Making, 2019, vol. 14, issue 4, 395-411

Abstract: We propose a new method to facilitate comparison of aggregated forecasts based on different aggregation, elicitation and calibration methods. Aggregates are evaluated by their relative position on the cumulative distribution of the corresponding individual scores. This allows one to compare methods using different measures of quality that use different scales. We illustrate the use of the method by re-analyzing various estimates from Budescu and Du (Management Science, 2007).

Date: 2019
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