Repeated risky choices become more consistent with themselves but not expected value, with no effect of matched trial order

Jake Spicer, Timothy L. Mullett and Adam N. Sanborn

Judgment and Decision Making, 2024, vol. 19, -

Abstract: Choices made in risky scenarios are considered fundamentally noisy because decisions have often been found to be inconsistent when repeated. Past measures of noise may, however, be confounded by the use of randomized contextual factors that are known to influence choice, in particular, the order of trials. In two experiments, we control trial order to test the extent to which inconsistent choice is attributable to changes in experimental context. Both tasks find strong evidence that trial order has no effect on choice consistency, indicating such experimental factors have little influence on behavior compared with internal noise. Choices also showed an increase in consistency across multiple repetitions, suggesting a fall in noise with experience, but this increase was not associated with any improvement in performance, with choices showing no greater adherence to either expected value or expected utility across repetitions. Instead, choices increasingly adhered to simplistic heuristic decision rules, possibly indicating greater reliance on such strategies as the tasks progressed. These results carry implications for a number of decision-making theories, including true-and-error models, rank-based methods, and strategy shift approaches.

Date: 2024
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